Journal time!
There was an interesting article in my recent Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Journal, “Plastic Surgery: Quo Vadis? Current Trends and Future Projections of Aesthetic Plastic Surgical Procedures in the US”
This was a study out of Germany, NYU, and the UN Population Fund. They looked at the Aesthetic Society cosmetic surgery statistics from 1997 to 2012. They analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group, and then used population projections from the US Census.
Results?
- They expect aesthetic procedures to grow from 1.688 million in 2012 to 3.848 million by 2030.
- nonsurgical procedures made up most of the over 10million cosmetic interventions in 2012, but the majority of the money spent (61% of the 11 billion spent) was on surgical procedures.
- the age distribution of the patient population will change, so the surgeries and procedures chosen will vary with age distribution
- They project the most common procedures in 2030 will be breast augmentation, lipoplasty, and blepharoplasty (eyelid surgery)
- the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, so by 2030, 32% of the procedures will be done on non Caucasian patients.
I thought this was interesting to think about. I liked the novel approach using Census data to help project the future of aesthetic surgery. I think plastic surgery is evolving. What I do today, 15 years into my private practice, is not what I learned in residency. Things like the vertical short scar technique for breast reduction and fat transfer to the face and breast were not around 20 years ago. So I wonder… Some surgeries like eyelid surgery may stand the test of time, but others may be replaced by advances in stem cells, fat transfer, and tissue engineering. Time will tell.