Brief blog:
When shelter in place was instituted 2 weeks ago, I thought the April deadline would not likely happen. The ban has now been extended to May 1. I expect that ban will also get extended.
Look to Italy, NY, Seattle. They are ahead of us in this explosion, and I do not see any of them open for business in a month. In places like China where the ban has been eased, there have been resurgences.
We need to have aggressive testing to know who has had it, who currently is active, and who has not. We need to see hospitals emptying, not filling. We need to know that there are no shortages of masks, gloves, and other protective equipment before we proceed with elective things. We need better treatments. We need a vaccine.
This is hard on all of us. Everyone. Every age. Every profession.
I was reading a blog today by another physician, who was talking about how tempting it is to cheat. “One quick little get together can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention. You can’t cheat it. People are itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item in the store…. This quickly recreates a highly connected social network which undermines all the work the community has done so far.”
Be strong. Be safely at home. Flatten the curve.
When will it end?
I would predict earliest things will ease is during the summer. Even then, I expect it will not be business as usual. I do not know when elective office visits (though virtual visits are a good working option), procedures and surgeries will commence.